Next! 2013 punditry you can draw on

We hate next year punditry. OK, so here’s ours anyway: Love em, hate em, but believe em. The New Year’s spirit is telling us it’s all true, plus the Moleskine never lies.

happy new year and peace.

2013 in 2012

ps – so? who has time for PPT & graphics? draw your own.

pps – i hope you have a minute or two leftover to respond with your thoughts in the comments section.

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Facebook will win in mobile when…

There has been a lot of press about facebook in the last few days. Especially with their recent earnings announcement pointing to their growing “problem” with mobile. Problem? What problem you say? Sure, my facebook app moves a little slowly on my iphone, but seems not to be a problem, right?

facebook marketing fail

Why am I getting diaper ads on facebook mobile?

The problem is monetization. How to get more revenue from the fact that more than a third of facebook’s traffic comes from mobile devices. For me, it all comes down to one thing. Better segmentation must be made available to advertisers, drawn from the vast data available to facebook on their user’s behavior and their explicitly stated data.

Case in point: Alice.com, a well regarded up and comer in the ecommerce space, sells grocery items. They want to build loyal followers and customers, and they are using social media to advance their agenda. Good for them. Do you imagine then that they’d mean to pay to have their offers misdirected if they could avoid it? Basic direct marketing 101 suggests that smart segmentation of your offers makes for better marketing performance. Then, why, on my mobile device, am I receiving offers for diapers? Shouldn’t Alice.com be given better insights into my potential buying behavior by the facebook marketing team? Wouldn’t they like to know that Bill Hewson isn’t their best segment for diaper purchases? Wouldn’t they rather pitch me on dog food or shampoo, or anything else they I would be likely to buy base on data that facebook already has on me? Of course they would.

As soon as facebook can offer smarter segmentation for their advertisers, facebook won’t have a mobile “problem” anymore.

Google Versus Facebook: Messaging Battle in the Cloud

No one will be surprised to hear that Google and Facebook are in a war for our messaging attention. Of couse, it’s not about power, it’s about money, and the more eyeballs they attract and get typing and clicking, the more revenue they pull in. There are a few other players in this drama, such as Apple, but really, it feels as if the future of our digital lives is going to be most affected by the seemingly unstoppable behemoths that are Google and Facebook. And right now, Facebook seems to be winning from a hearts and minds perspective because it’s such a personalized tool for us, and the advancements they are making to their UX are so profound that many of us don’t even realize they are happening.

Both Google and Facebook realize, as few others do, that our future is indeed, as Microsoft so lamely puts it in their advertising “to the cloud!” Unfortunately for Microsoft, most of my friends who don’t work in the digital realm ask me frequently “what is this cloud I keep hearing about?” Let me give you some examples of why Microsoft has already lost this war in the clouds when it comes to one of the mot ubiquitous practices online: messaging.

Facebook’s latest rollout of it’s message feature is remarkable. It’s remarkable in that it allows all 500MM+ of it’s users to actively communicate through like 5 different written channels (Facebook chat, Facebook messages, Facebook email address, your other associated email address and text messaging to boot) all assembled on the fly. And, they’ve given you your own facebook email address that is feeding into the same centralized thread, all stored in your inbox at Facebook in perpetuity. And they are storing all your messaging, in perpetuity as well, all up in their large portion of the cloud.

Did you already know all that? Probably if you’ve been on Faceook in the last few weeks. What you may not have recognized though, is just what a remarkable feat of engineering they’ve pulled off to get us all eventually funneled into a deeper relationship with that site platform. more eyeballs going to FB to read their mail = more eyeballs to sell to advertisers. Something David Armano over at Edelman has likened to boiling a frog.

And it isn’t just that they’ve done it, but that they are the first to do it, at this scale, and without needing plugins, new software downloaded, and sort of registration or alternate forms of T&Cs. and no cost to the user. And they’ve kind of rolled in out quietly.

Then there’s Google. While they’re busy collecting all the world’s information, the amount of data about me they store in “the cloud” is immense. It gets scary to think that they might use that data for ill will someday, and i am sure no one in the US government is qualified to watch over that juggernaut. But what Google hasn’t yet cracked, is communications. They have Gmail, and they have the Blogger platform, and of course they own YouTube….wait a minute! They damn well have cracked communications, just not lately. Remember Google Wave? I think that got Google an article in Time magazine, but now it’s been killed due to a terrible greeting in the marketplace. Remember Google Buzz? Goggle Talk? etc, etc coming out of Google Labs. What has succeeded for Google seems very distant, primarily due to the lack of social and human connections between their communications hubs.

What Google hasn’t built yet is Facebook’s interwoven messaging platform, and so as of today,  Facebook seems to be driving closer to what Google wanted in the first place, which is total world domination of the internet (for now) personal communications environment. And make no mistake, Voice communications domination will follow. No wonder those conspiracy nuts are so scared of both these companies.

What will the future bring? Will it be one where all our messaging is channeled via Facebook? consider this: you never get spam on Facebook, you never get calls from timeshare operators on Facebook, and you usually get a good response from a close friend on Facebook. Google can’t match that yet, and until they catch up, the world will continue to let  Facebook capture their time and attention, and ultimately, their precious eyeballs.

Do you have a different opinion? Let me know with a comment!